| The Yamagata Days...... |
[Mar. 1st, 2009|11:43 am] |
Two recent events coalesced into muse for this entry. The first was an innocuous question why I actually have a legitimate copy of the movie "Scoop" in my possession; which led to the inevitable query whether my preoccupation with all things Scarlet was a tad overboard. The second was an advert for Rachel Yamagata's upcoming concert on April 15. It was an eureka moment. Scoop was bought during that period of my life which could be aptly termed "the Yamagata days".
Now, this isn't a fixed time-line or era, it's more like a period of time when my life was composed of various dominant trends. But if I were to fix a discrete beginning and end to it. I posit that it started around the later half of 2005 and tapered off in mid 2006.
Those were languid days. It was mostly spent "thesising"; a nomenclature that I recently picked up from my peripheral friends of that era. Peripheral friends who became more important simply because I was prematurely abandoned by my more familiar posse. Not that I blame either parties. It was simply that our roads have diverged then for a moment.
Of course, a reliance on these folks meant that I was meeting more people, which I guess is a good thing, as third degree friends have been known to be the ones more likely to refer you to jobs, and be great information troves for esoteric knowledge as and when you need them.
I really miss some of them. But it is also a sad fact that I am not the sort who drags important signposts along with me all through life. I prefer to let go, and see when our routes converge again. And they do, in the most unexpected fashions sometimes. As such, I don't send festive cards, I don't organize meet-ups on special occasions. The best I do is a text on your birthday. And believe me this, not many people receive that.
Of course, some of these people influenced the music of that era. It started with jazz I think, and the already familiar strains of Keys and Sade. But Yamagata's songs took on a life of it's own. In that stressful period, it was the Avril Lavinge to my directionless freshman years; where rebelliousness and frustrations have been reformed into morose detachment and melancholy four years hence. Her music of contingent paths chosen and irrevocable struck a deep chord within me.
That era ended with many possibilities unfulfilled; but there were also goals that got completed. Her music was one of the few familiar items that I took along with me on my hiatus in Japan, and even now, the strains of her songs remind me of the bewilderment in Omato-sando and Harajuku, of getting lost in Shinjuku, of starving and searching for a suitable diner in Ginza, of temple wanderings in Asakusa, and a useful anti-tout device when passing by gentlemen clubs in Roppongi.
The spell got broken when I returned to the hum-drum of reality. Back to where choices made no longer had significant impact to the future paths. It was back to bread and butter issues, and life was no more unique every single day.
That lasted several months. Then there were a few subsequent leaps of faith, each one leading to the next. And, before I know it, here I am. As I face a wall of uncertainty about the next few months, it's nice to be reminded of those "Yamagata days", and realise that uncertainty is not a trial that I have not overcame before. |
|
|
| Games |
[Jan. 29th, 2009|11:22 am] |
During the festive season, we played this game where everyone around the table was dealt two exposed cards, and then everyone took turns to place a bet that cannot exceed the amount in a pot. If the next card dealt to you is "in-between" (name of the game) the two hold cards, you win the amount bet. If it were outside of the range, your bet goes into the pot. If you were "fortunate" enough to pair your hold card, you lose double the bet. Well, it was fun. However, the sad empirical side of the mind took over the next day, and the following work was produced.
I believe in the value of heuristics. Thumb of rule in this game: take the base "local" solution, then add or subtract 2% for every exposed outlier or in-betweener respectively, then add 4% for every card that matches your hold.
Verify, critique, poke at this "proof" at your leisure.
If you think I am sick, I would have you know that the host did the maths LAST lunar new year. That makes him a sick cheat.
CORRECTION to the solution, silly mistake for the global solution as the penalty is 2Z instead of Z. Each exposed out should be equal to -2Y+(1/2) instead; as such, they reduce your expected return by 4% instead of the initial 2%. Realised that mistake while taking a bus on friday. |
|
|
| Update from Hiatus |
[Sep. 29th, 2008|04:13 pm] |
Quick update in the middle of work.
Ben is busy...
1. Preparing for two conferences.
2. Preparing to lead a consultation project.
3. Tidying up a paper for publication.
4. Studying for GRE.
5. Building up materials needed for graduate school application.
6. Doing everything without detriment to social life and health. (Note that health is secondary).
7. "Training to be soldiers." Or rather pass IPPT.
He is rather happy...
1. Mostly satisfied in the physical, emotional and spiritual sort of way.
2. Is finding meaning in his personal relationships, especially with dear G and D. (D&G sounds better, but I fear that G would take offense at D being listed first).
He could do with...
1. More sleep and alone time.
2. More money to pad the reserves and sink into personal investments.
3. Having more time to spend with D before leaving for an eternity (from his perspective anyway).
He'd like...
1. An iphone.
2. An imac.
3. A nice furry partner for D.
4. A nice jacket from Zara.
Heck, I'll probably splurge to get all those (with an exception for item 3) for myself if I through this year with all objectives met. |
|
|
| Flooding the society with Graduates is not the way to go... |
[Aug. 13th, 2008|09:30 am] |
This piece represents my personal view, and is no way reflective of the position taken by any organisations that I am affiliated to.
Many economists see attainment of a university degree as a signaling device. At the extreme, some would tell you that in a select local contexts, if you are unlikely to get 1st and 2nd upper honours by year 3, you should simply graduate without honours that very year. Why? Because you are statistically more likely to get paid more; there is more signal "noise" at the degree without honours level: you could have opted out due financial reasons, or better opportunities uncorrelated to intellectual ability...
This takes the idea of obtaining qualifications into a game-theoretical approach, in which education has no direct relevance to productivity in the work place. To a significant extent, that is true. For the best part of two years at work, I got along by being smart, not by using specific skill sets taught to me in class. Class merely conferred confidence; pun intended.
In China, one of the mass mills producing graduates, the lack of opportunities result in some of their lower tier grads working as security guards. It is indeed a problem when the demand for highly qualified work does not equate to the supply.
http://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/index.php?term=pto-20080623-000004&print=1
At the moment, Singapore is set to expand it's production frontier for graduates. I would preach a note of caution. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/366869/1/.html
First off, it looks like a knee jerk reaction to other countries' expansion of their graduate supply chain. Apparently, we need to 'keep up' with the churning out of volume. Considering the normal distribution of intellect, and the argument that most tertiary degrees (outside professional degrees) only has signal value, this can only mean that quality would go down. Plus, it might exacerbate grade inflation, which is detrimental to the community as a whole.
Secondly, tertiary education is a regressive tax. Though heavily subsidised, a year in fees is still a quarter what is deemed to be subsistent middle income income (24k for a family of four annually). I recall having read previous studies that the university student population is overrepresented by the middle to higher income (might be wrong here). Thus, it's regressive.
Thirdly, does the economy have the capacity for more graduates? Tough call there. We are indeed moving to a non-direct-production based economy. It is what Nassim Taleb terms "scale-able" work as opposed to piece meal. Done right, increasing supply would look brilliant; done wrong, you would more graduates in white collar "piece-meal" factories.
Fourth, the price of signals go up. No doubt this coincides with the push for top scholars to do post-graduate studies. But yet, on a private basis, this signal cost is prohibitively high. It is a squeeze even on middle income families, and I am not talking about the 24k a year sort, think 3-4 times that. In some sense, this homogeneity of degrees could prevent middle income "smarts" from attaining their ambitions, simply because they cannot afford a further signal. That, could result in further inequality between the rich (filthy-sort) and the not-so-rich (far-from-poor-sort that is the ho-drum of local society; an abject erosion of the middle class.
You know, most people think that competition is good; I feel that it's only good when true competition can occur. And to be honest, with all three local universities are ranked not too far apart in the global scheme of things, they are pretty undifferentiated in terms of repute. The real difference students would see is that of the final grade; their signal trophy. As such, market pressures tend towards grade-inflation across the board.
Preparing the education system for growth in strategic industries is laudable. Specialist courses in casino management, fantastic. The statistic and economics department should probably come up with maths and game-theoretic majors in poker as well. More seriously, I stick to my rather elitist (and contentious) viewpoint that increasing supply and targeting a higher proportion of the population to attend university is inefficiency in resource management; personal view is that it is currently generous on the entry requirements. There are private sector alternatives for tertiary education, should they be truly inclined to better themselves, and it would probably lead to better choices made. Just not on Uncle Sam's dime please... |
|
|
| Commiseration... |
[Aug. 12th, 2008|09:08 am] |
|
Commiseration has a connotation of the old school "wretchedness" mixed within it's present day meaning of empathy; so says the Oxford English Dictionary anyway. It feels good to be creative once again, yet I also fear that it is precisely this lacuna of capacity that leads one to melancholy. Some days are especially gray, in which the present is dubious, and the future far so more, and at those times, camaraderie in co-commiseration is a cauterizing condolence. |
|
|
| An Open Letter Responding to the Article “My Singular Existence” |
[Jul. 28th, 2008|10:36 am] |
In response to Sumiko Tan's article "My Singular Existance" in the Sunday Times (The Straits Times) on 27th July.
Dear Sumiko,
As a single in the mid twenties, at “my biological peak” as you term it, I can empathise with your sentiment that singles appear to be short changed. In the MNC that I worked in previously, those “married with kids” (MWK), somehow, seem more able to detach themselves from the work desk at sane hours of the evening. Around the festive season, even the usually generous organisation (who thinks nothing of providing sashimi dinners for putting in late work) becomes a tad stingier and discriminatory: red packets nicely embossed with the company emblem were distributed tacitly only to the wedded folks...
Truth is, I intend to use the forecasted near-term downturn in the housing market to purchase a domicile of my own. Fact is, though I would much prefer private housing, there is a strong incentive for me to tie the knot with my significant other, and quickly too, so that the combined income does not exceed the cap imposed for government subsidy on public housing. Point one to Sumiko.
Yes. There are many subsidies that are available to citizens who follow the government exhortation to get married. It is after all, the first step to legitimate childbirth, which reinforces social order and stability. As an economist, I draw a clear line between subsidy and tax. Thumb of rule, you subsidise social goods, and tax social ills. Last I checked singles are seldom taxed on account of being single; they are also very rarely subsidised.
When singles argue that they get saddled with more work due to strategically slackening MWK colleagues, have they discounted the fact that singles do get rewarded for those implicit sacrifices? Whether that comes in the near term reward of a higher bonus, or being made senior editor in less years is up to the discretion of astute and fair-minded superiors. At this point, I would like to draw your attention to the article “Bachelorhood and its Discontents” in the New English Review. It lists a long honour roll of bachelors who basically changed our world, and argues that singles have more opportunity to act out their ambitions, thus immortalising their names in deeds rather than posterity. In that sense, singles do get their recognition and due; though it’s neither subsidised nor taxed by the state.
The crux of your argument, if I got it right, is that while getting hitched is a choice, singlehood might be a route forced upon an individual for pure lack of opportunity. “Choice” is the crux of this discussion; only decisions made can be encouraged or dissuaded by public policy. As such, an inadvertent outcome resulting in singlehood cannot be swayed by taxes or subsidies. This was not raised in your article.
In closing, I would have to address a pet peeve belonging of a senior colleague I work with. Subsidies and taxes are two face of one same coin: you cannot subsidise without taxing from somewhere else whilst maintaining revenue neutrality. Re-phased, are MWKs worth the taxpayer dollars on? That is a tough question to answer. If I remember my social work readings from half a decade ago properly, it is a form of pre-emptive social policy decreasing the incidence of childbirth taking place in “at-risk” households. In the migrant society that Singapore is becoming, there is also a need to increase the amount of natural citizens, if only to aid assimilation and retain our national “flavour”. From this viewpoint, I would argue yes for subsidy, but the amount of “encouragement” needed is indeed debatable.
Meanwhile, I would do what singles my age do. Attend my peers’ weddings and baby showers, thus further subsidising their endeavours with gifts out of my own pocket. They have my blessings though. Marriage, kids, these are commitments that are expected to be lifelong binds; not something that I would allow government subsidies to easily tip myself into. At this present time and age, I must profess to be personally ambivalent to whether I end up as a tax payer or receiver in these two choices (or eventualities). Of course, that might change as the years move on.
Sincerely,
Benjamin |
|
|
| Nostalgic Barbie |
[Jul. 4th, 2008|10:10 am] |
I saw this post(The Thinking Girl's Barbie?) on Slate and recalled an interesting piece that I had written many years ago. Time flies fast I dare say.
Even right now, there are still limits to which directions I allow my intellectual curiosity to go. |
|
|
| Inequality |
[Jun. 30th, 2008|08:21 am] |
I read this article on inequality this morning, and two thoughts surfaced rather quickly.
One, that equality under capitalism and democracy is probably an idealistic prayer; reality is that the Gini might be reduced after the initial inequality between the asset class and mass population after the birthing pangs of progress, but that's in reality merely a temporary groundswell mingling in with the rise of a middle class. There are few (if any) empirical work done on inequality in post-industrialised (Potter's 5th stage) societies.
Secondly, regressive taxation is probably the source of inequality. On the excuse that capital gain taxes and progressive taxes stunt economic growth, most tax systems in industrialised nations are mainly regressive. My favorite examples included mass subsidised tertiary education (which is proportionally less utilised by the lower class families, thus making it regressive); and an over reliance on consumption taxes in the taxation basket; which by nature penalises the less well off.
Hardly a surprise then, that inequality is widening.
Empirical surveys attempting to prove Rawlian justice as a mainstream demand often fails; it appears that humans enjoy playing the luck of the draw. As such, I personally agree that inequality is both reasonable and acceptable.
However, I dislike the mass media's propagating the fallacy that economic progress for a nation often leads to greater equality. |
|
|
| Semi-Colons |
[Jun. 23rd, 2008|09:22 am] |
|
I had an Old Post discussing one of my favorite punctuation marks (the semi-colon) back in February; apparently, this topic is back in vogue again. Slate Article as linked... |
|
|
| Random Musings |
[May. 7th, 2008|10:07 pm] |
Life is so random.
1. Blood clots in the left cheek as I bit myself many-a-time while chewing due to an emergent wisdom tooth.
2. By weird luck, helped a friend reunite with her sheltie lost since 6 months back.
3. Spent monday and tuesday programming macro grabs; amazing end point to an old life.
4. Finding out that my personal possessions at work merely fills up a small duffel.
5. Keeping fingers crossed that ... ... (Oh, that's personal. Ask me privately and I might tell.) |
|
|
| (no subject) |
[Apr. 22nd, 2008|08:08 pm] |
To many more dog years to come...
 |
|
|
| (no subject) |
[Mar. 23rd, 2008|09:00 pm] |
| [ | music |
| | Lene Marlin - One Year Ago | ] |
This is funny, but on the eve of a double anniversary, all I can think about is: what a crazy 12 months it had been.
I read recently that days spent working in an investment bank should be measured in dog years; by that measure, I am already past the decade mark. That's a very long time. I have matured and have established myself as somewhat irreplacable at my desk. Yet, as I reflect upon the 'who I was' one human year ago, I can't say I have changed very much; but in reality I have shifted myself to the cusp of what would probably define me for the rest of a real decade or so.
Many have said that they are glad to see me chase my passion; a few wonder if I truely knew I was giving up, or if I comprehended what I was getting myself into. Personally, I see it as partially seeking a dream, and also taking a calculated risk (much akin to the semi-bluff pot raise at post flop with an open-end straight flush draw). If there's hesitation on my part (and lets be honest here, there is), it probably because the stakes are unusually high.
Some measure value using quantifers such as 'bottles', a day's wage; or as my intern likes to put it when refering to his maximum downside risk: cheaper than one dead crocodile. Personally, for day-to-day matters, I frame value using the standard buy-in amounts at the poker table.
For this particular decision that I had to make, the sheer value disparity required more imagination: I returned to the asset class that helped me frame what annual compensation should be like when I was a 4th year undergrad. As such, my conservative estimates of potential present value impact for this 5 year commitment was measured to be equal to a Mini Cooper. As an aside, that was the toy I promised myself when I reached VP level.
So what swayed my decision when push came to shove in the form of a final offer on Good Friday afternoon? I guess it's the fact that even one year ago, I did spend a day in my precious block leave checking out how viable it is to persue post-graduate studies overseas. That even right now, that cost scares me, but more importantly, I have firm committments now locally that I am unwilling to forsake, nor take next step to seal at the moment. That I have the best qualified experts at hand to guide me in my future pursuits, in a field that I am keenly attached to, and at a level of compensation which albeit is less, but is what my future boss would say is out of line with my peers in this new industry.
Those intangibles, and the potential upside of new dividends reaped 4-5 years from now is probably what makes it worth the Mini that I would be giving up at the onset of the commitment. And that's what I would have to tell myself, for now.
Suddenly, I am curious about how the next year would play out; more curious that I have been for awhile. That's probably a good sign. Amen. |
|
|
| For the love of the semi-colon |
[Feb. 20th, 2008|08:40 am] |
One of my favourite punctuation marks; and I admit that I love it for the anachronistic charm that it presents.
Article on NYtimes
To quote an interesting paragraph from it: In terms of punctuation, semicolons signal something New Yorkers rarely do. Frank McCourt, the writer and former English teacher at Stuyvesant High School, describes the semicolon as the yellow traffic light of a “New York sentence.” In response, most New Yorkers accelerate; they don’t pause to contemplate. |
|
|
| Solvent again! |
[Feb. 17th, 2008|11:56 pm] |
Okay... Plodding towards the 2 year mark of working life/career, it comes with great relief to know that I am once again debt free; paid off the rest of my car 'loan' (quote marks coz my mum was the finance company) with the bonus money. Not that I ever regretted the decision, but just that debt feels like such a substantial liability on the balance sheet.
I guess I am the sort that craves dis-encumbrance; the flightly sensation of being able to run off at a moment's notice for an interest that catches the imaginative eye, rather than have to consider too hard the consequences of doing so. Rational that I usually am, I guess I have the shift some weights the other way to give the romantic/irrational side of me a chance to manifest.
Solvency feels good. Someone please hold me back if I change my mind and decide to get an apartment in the next year or so. |
|
|
| The latest salvo... |
[Nov. 26th, 2007|12:54 am] |
Yes, people around me have noticed that I do take time off to redress grievances against myself. No surprise then that I would actually fire off this particular salvo; written with the mandatory brevity, wit and sarcasm. Enjoy...
PS: My own fine was only $6.
------------------------------------------
Unequal and Biased Treatment by your Officer
Dear Sir/Madam,
I write in, with regards to Notice Number 74*******H, demanding justice against your officer for selective and biased treatment with regards to the issue of traffic offence notices.
The facts of the matter are as such. I was issued a parking offence notice for exceeding the parking coupon time at 12:11AM on 11th of November. However, a van that was parked 2 metres away from my lot, straddling the pavement on a double yellow line was not fined. Note that the vehicle was parked at that very spot when I arrived (around 21:45, 10th Oct 2007) and was still around when I departed subsequently. (Please view attached photograph.)
While I cannot be sure why your vested officer would wilfully exercise biasness in the course of duty, one can only surmise that the particular vehicle and others, which were not parked on 'official lots' appear to be regular residents, and their violations seem to have been viewed in a more favourable light.
Of course, this is but among the more innocent explanation that come to mind.
Kindly investigate the matter; I would be awaiting your findings and subsequent action. Feel free to get back to me if you require further details.
Regards,
Benjamin. |
|
|
| (no subject) |
[Nov. 23rd, 2007|01:20 pm] |
|
Financial Security: is looking at your bank balance after pay day and kinda realising that a pair of overpriced return tickets to Melbourne and a grand of spending money is only roughly equal to one month's take home. Oh well, still feels sucky to have to return to work on monday; even if I get my new window seat. |
|
|
| Macroeconomics: International Finance |
[Nov. 21st, 2007|08:29 pm] |
The financial world is so subsumed by the impact of the subprime mortgages crisis that it has largely not noticed the unintended consequences of the (repeated) "Bernanke Put".
Last I checked my international finance concepts, there is an inverse correlation between interest rates and exchange rate. The reduction of the Fed rates in the last two meetings might have bolstered the flagging equities market, but there has been a corresponding depreciation of the dear Georgie bill of around 5-10% in the same period, across most floated currencies.
Lets get this clear. Subprime notes, and other complex deriviative products are largely held by institutional buyers and savvy customers. They are supposed to understand their risk exposure on the products they hold; they are professionals... On the other hand, the greenback is held ubiquitously by the world at large. For the common man thinking they can get cheaper holidays in the Americas now, I'd say good luck. Especially since your retirement money and investments held in global funds denominated in US dollar currencies just had a double whammy of reduced growth and foreign exchange hit. That is, if you are not a US citizen. If you are a Singaporean, whose central bank holds around 30 thousand USD per citizen in forex reserve (ballpark reasonable guess, my last research on this was around 2-3yrs back), you just lost more money.
Years from now, people would probably look back at 2007 as the year of the American Treasury bill 'default'.
If America was truely altruistic and is trying to resuscitate the global economy, cheapening their debts at the expense of their bill holders (largely developing countries with 'soft' currencies) probably isn't the most friendly way. As they are no longer a pivotal engine of global growth, one wonders if they may do better to suck it up, and await a less than gentle landing; one which most people think is inevitable anyway.
Of course, the cynic in me thinks that they might just want to allay the hardships of recession till 2008-2009ish, after the elections are over. So that their people could vote for the next president worrying about the economy in the future, rather than the present economy itself. Afterall, embittered jobless people who have lost their homes could well vote for any radical independent candidate rather than the imbedded establishment. It is indeed supposedly a land of democratic idealists, who are on the verge of perhaps swearing in their first black or female president in 2008. Pardon me while I say big fat hairy deal.
The world on the other hand, would probably forgive this double default, but they would never forget it. The day of George Washingtons NOT being used ubiquitously as a global currency have arguablely moved into the nearer future. One cautions that the day it gets used as a fish and chip wrapper has just became more than an firm impossibility. |
|
|
| Online Poker |
[Sep. 24th, 2007|11:13 am] |
| [ | mood |
| | snoozy | ] |
| [ | music |
| | Enrique Iglesias - Escape | ] |
Playing at Full Tilt is affecting my poker style adversely; it increases the tendency for me to risk seek even after odds calculation. Using it to try out new styles is also not very effective since few players stay in the same room for hours on end for me to capitalise on building a table image. Needless to say, playing for funny money makes it even less of a real world testing ground. I guess the major advantage left is that it allows me to track how poorly I play under fatigue, and then to factor that in under real life conditions.
Yawn... Lets see if I can find anyone to do some real world shopping with me today. Life in the next 3 months? It's either going to be very restive with a pot at the end; or it's going to be action man reincarnate once again. Actually, I prefer the latter. *Fingers-crossed* As we say in poker terms, I have two live cards going into a raised preflop. Ain't it great that everything in life has a poker metaphor? =) |
|
|
| Definition: "An Angry Email" |
[Sep. 15th, 2007|02:57 pm] |
"An Angry Email" can be defined as a short terse electronic correspondance lacking in prefunctionary greetings. It is a functional device explicit in purpose. Used well, it invokes guilt from the receiver for under-performance on their part. It should not be confused with a close relative: the "Rude Email".
I consider myself to be an excellent user of the occasional "angry email"; it gets things done. That said, I do not encourage indiscriminate use of it. Professionally, "rude emails" are unacceptable. |
|
|
| Something's wrong in this 'hood |
[Sep. 12th, 2007|10:51 pm] |
It's some little things that worry me about the way this state is going.
My request to be sent some documents took more than the 3 days they say it'd take.
My formal complaint on another matter went 10 working days without any response, even the angry email I followed up with only returned with a generic, automated response.
Methinks we are increasingly being served by civil imbeciles; a gradual decadence similar to the Asimovic 'Galactic Empire', albeit on a smaller scale. |
|
|
| navigation |
| [ |
viewing |
| |
most recent entries |
] |
| [ |
go |
| |
earlier |
] |
| |
|
|
![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small}
miserable_'s journal