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Below are the 20 most recent journal entries recorded in cunctator_'s LiveJournal:

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Friday, October 14th, 2016
9:57 pm
Being a Bayesian means that your software never barfs
A discussant or referee cannot say that an identification assumption is not credible if they cannot figure out what it is and are too embarrassed to ask.

https://paulromer.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/WP-Trouble.pdf
Saturday, March 19th, 2016
10:26 pm
when bankers lived by the 3-6-3 rule
For the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem – how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.
https://www.1843magazine.com/features/why-do-we-work-so-hard
Saturday, February 6th, 2016
8:29 pm
Never theorize before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgments.
Economists are taught that it is the function of Economic Science to test the truthfulness of the theories, when the real goal is to identify the theory’s domain of usefulness.
Once indoctrinated in graduate school, it takes a long time for new Ph.D.’s in Economics to learn that it is only stories and patterns that we do. Until they make that discovery, they waste a lot of time and rhetoric on “theory and evidence,” admiring their t-values.

E. E. Leamer, Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories: A Guide for MBAs.
Tuesday, January 12th, 2016
6:36 am
exceptionally well-developed taste
can you tell me what your paper was about? Because as far as I can see, it was about nothing.

http://www.gsb.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/documents/Rust%20Presentation.pdf
Wednesday, August 5th, 2015
12:12 am
but of course it is not the only one
Although … new economic theories are introduced by the technique of the huckster, I should add that they are not the work of mere hucksters. … Instead, the successful inventor is a one-sided man. He is utterly persuaded of the significance and correctness of his ideas and he subordinates all other truths because they seem to him less important than the general acceptance of his truth. He is more a warrior against ignorance than a scholar among ideas.

Stigler 1955, “The Nature and Role of Originality in Scientific Progress,” Economica, New Series, Vol. 22, No. 88, pp. 293-302

http://paulromer.net/stigler-conviction-vs-feynman-integrity/
Monday, August 3rd, 2015
2:20 am
Sunday, July 12th, 2015
12:45 am
твердые факты про мягкие способности
Оригинал взят у golos_dobra в твердые факты про мягкие способности
Рекомендую

http://www.amazon.com/Myth-Achievement-Tests-Character-American/dp/022610009X

The Myth of Achievement Tests: The GED and the Role of Character in American Life

Книжку можно не покупать, хотя лучше купить, авторы хорошо знают фортран,
по крайней мере один из них точно,
но кто беден тоже может приобщиться - все главное изложено в презентации тут

http://harris.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/Jim%20Heckman.pdf

Hard Evidence on Soft Skills

Uncritical reliance on tests as measures of the outcomes of schools and social programs is a dangerous policy
Uncritical reliance on tests as measures of the outcomes of schools and social programs is a dangerous policy
Uncritical reliance on tests as measures of the outcomes of schools and social programs is a dangerous policy

Investment most productive in early years for IQ and fluid intelligence.
Investment relatively more productive in middle years of childhood for fostering personality.
Associated with the slowly developing pre‐frontal cortex.

Focus on cognitive test scores deceives us.
Soft skills matter.
They can be shaped, even into the adolescent and young adult years.

The Big Five Domains


IQ becomes rank stable by the early teenage years
IQ becomes rank stable by the early teenage years
IQ becomes rank stable by the early teenage years


Conclusions
The GED program conceals and creates major social problems.

Schools now focus only on math and reading.



Policies focusing on promoting test scores,
tuition and college application polices,
and the like miss a basic point about what matters for success and how to foster it.

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2015/06/17-soft-skills-workforce-success/0617_transcript_soft-skills.pdf


if you look at IQ, IQ explains very little of earnings, maybe 7%.
If you ask people who aren’t in this room, people who are less informed about these things they’re shocked.
Many people think IQ is 50% of variability. It’s not.


Even the test school, and I’ll call AFQT, the test scorers, explaining about 17% of earnings. Grade point average is actually explaining more than IQ.

But what’s also important to note is that a lot is not explained.
There’s a lot of variability that’s not captured by any of the measures,
including all the measures you put up, Rebecca, earlier today…


We got rid of even physics and music from schools because, you know,
we wanted to get these test scores out there, and we just stripped away everything that was valid about education, useful.

The thing that Horace Mann was talking about, I mean, it’s commonsense, but I think what’s going to happen when we look back on the 1960 era to roughly this era here we’re going to say for about 40 or 50 years American society, and probably world society, got caught up in the throes of cognitive psychology and thought everything could be boiled down to a test and then everything 50 years later, as we improve and escape this trauma, was we understood a much broader notion of human skill and what the purpose of education was about.

Я даже на русский переводить не буду, во избежание дурной привычки многих русскоязычных
бросаться сходу глупостями в комментариях, считая свои собственные внутренние мыслительные процессы хоть в чем-то
соразмерным многолетней деятельности нобелевских лауреатов по 80 часов напряженной мысли в неделю.

Что особенно усугубляется к тому же повышенным процентом аутистов мехмат профиля среди обитателей интервебов,
всерьез считающих свое уродство достоинством.

Понятно тебе, Ребекка? Не все измеряется гауссом, Ребекка, не все измеряется числом цитирований,
и прочими карго-метриками.

Не все, Ребекка.

Коэффициент твоей регрессии, Ребекка, если и отличен от чистого шума,
то только потому, Ребекка, что ты инструмент неправильно взяла, Ребекка.

Wednesday, April 29th, 2015
11:40 pm
Перегибы в борьбе с перегибами
Оригинал взят у corporatelie в Перегибы в борьбе с перегибами
Получил вчера партию документов из ГАНО, а там в стенограмме одного из совещаний такое.

Р-2, оп.2, д.458, 028.jpg

Канцелярит местных советских и партийных органов времен коллективизации,в целом, вполне заслуживает отдельного филологического исследования, с моей точки зрения. Праволевацкие перегибы в блокировке с белогвардейско-эсеровским подпольем.

Saturday, April 4th, 2015
4:54 pm
If you think a large part of our professional life is not mortgaged to capitalists
When Ferdinand Springer sought to leave the occupied city of Berlin after World War II to rescue his family, he was stopped at a military control post. The commanding Russian officer demanded an explanation. Springer identified himself as a publisher of scientific books and journals (in his mind that was explanation enough) whereupon the officer commanded, "Tell me the names of the editors of such and such journal!" Springer had retained the names of Russian scientists and editors on the masthead of the journals they had served, despite the war. As he recited these names, the officer suddenly interrupted, "That's me, and I am honored to meet you." He provided Springer with free passage which allowed him to rejoin his family.

http://www.dam.brown.edu/people/mumford/blog/2015/WakeUp.html
Monday, February 23rd, 2015
12:58 am
Почему тебе вологодское масло и Зыкину заслоняют Путин с Сечиным?
Мы делаем вид, что это нынешний Санкт-Петербургский университет — это где ректорский флигель, где Блок родился, Менделеев, Павлов, это все отсюда. Да нет, отсюда парткомы наши. И Бастрыкин — секретарь комитета ВЛКСМ Ленинградского университета, сидевший в ректорском флигеле — колыбели Блока — вот это отсюда, да.

http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/94723
Tuesday, December 30th, 2014
1:44 pm
Математика — это такое путешествие, где лишний багаж не помогает
Хорошее математическое образование дает человеку возможность научиться отличать вещи, которые надо обязательно взять с собой в профессиональный поход по жизни, от вещей, которые вроде бы и не совсем бесполезны, и красиво выглядят, но нет необходимости тащить с собой, их всегда можно «купить в ближайшем магазине» (посмотреть в интернете).

http://www.hse.ru/news/science/140318908.html
Sunday, December 21st, 2014
7:09 pm
After all, in a way, charm is just small talk
Only the self-aware can have charm: It’s bound up with a sensibility that at best approaches wisdom, or at least worldliness, and at worst goes well beyond cynicism. It can’t exist in the undeveloped personality.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/06/when-men-lost-their-charm/309303/

Когда вас одолевает скука, предайтесь ей. Пусть она вас задавит; погрузитесь, достаньте до дна. Вообще, с неприятностями правило таково: чем скорее вы коснетесь дна, тем тем быстрее выплывете на поверхность. Идея здесь, пользуясь словами другого великого англоязычного поэта, заключается в том, чтобы взглянуть в лицо худшему.
http://lib.ru/BRODSKIJ/skuka.txt
Thursday, November 20th, 2014
1:16 am
Sunday, October 26th, 2014
11:25 pm
All you can do is try to hire honest people
Fancy this: racetracks that keep 93% of your money and return only 5% in winning tickets. They wouldn’t last long, not unless they could somehow rig the rules to both forbid price competition and make the purchase of race bets mandatory. That’s more or less what the title insurance industry has done to American homeowners

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2006/1113/148.html
Thursday, October 2nd, 2014
8:24 pm
What should you do if your true calling is gaming the system?
Charles Darwin was 22 when he received an invitation to travel aboard the HMS Beagle as a naturalist. It was only because he was otherwise unoccupied, to a degree that alarmed his family, that he could accept it. And yet if he hadn't we probably would not know his name.

http://paulgraham.com/before.html
Tuesday, September 23rd, 2014
9:26 pm
they should have more self-respect
In some ways, [compensation of a "super-manager" ...i] s more like the income of an ancien regime tax farmer, or an Ottoman timariot, than the income of a roofer, nurse's aid, computer programmer, or even an architect. (Actually, the analogy with the timariot grows on me the more I think about it. The timariot didn't own his timar, he couldn't sell it or bequeath it, any more than a super-manager owns his company. Officially, income in both cases is compensation for services rendered to the actual owner, whether sultan or stock-holder.)

http://vserver1.cscs.lsa.umich.edu/~crshalizi/weblog/algae-2014-07.html
Monday, July 7th, 2014
3:11 am
Wednesday, May 7th, 2014
6:15 am
Немного Бродского
Оригинал взят у scholar_vit в Немного Бродского
Развивая Платона

Иосиф Бродский

Collapse )
Tuesday, April 22nd, 2014
2:28 am
Effective drug law enforcement.
Well, about three weeks later he called me and he said that the problem is over, that they had reacted. They had found the people, and he said that we "didn't have any problem anymore in Panama." I asked him, "Well, what did you do? Are they in jail?" He said, "No. we got them in a helicopter and took them out to the cannery, on one of the islands that are close to Panama City, which is infested with sharks, and we threw them in. And that took care of the problem."

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/drugs/interviews/heath.html
Monday, April 7th, 2014
5:23 pm
Even in the world of academia, most people aren't motivated by the truth.
What they want, above all, is not to be bored.

Clearly, this could be helpful information if you're looking to intrigue friends, fascinate a potential lover, or keep your students engaged. But it's also troubling.

My first reaction to that was, "How interesting! I must explore this topic further!" which just shows how addictive interestingness can be. The correct reaction, obviously, is to go and watch the sunset.

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2014/apr/05/this-column-change-your-life-interestingness-truth
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